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Home price forecast 2026: what to expect and how to make informed decisions

The forecast of housing prices in 2026 is once again one of the most common queries among buyers, investors and developers. However, asking the question only in terms of a rise or fall is insufficient.

The residential market no longer behaves homogeneously. In 2026, the real value lies in identifying which segments will continue to grow, which are likely to stabilize, and where risk will increase if strategic decisions are not made.

Spain enters a new expansionary phase of the residential market

The Spanish real estate market is in an expansionary phase sustained by two structural factors:

  • Strong and diversified demand

  • Insufficient supply, especially in new construction

The accumulated housing deficit in urban areas, areas with job creation and markets with residential attractiveness will continue to pressure prices in 2026.

The analyses in the CaixaBank Research Real Estate Report agree that this tension is not cyclical, but structural. This makes it necessary to change the approach: it is no longer enough to analyze average prices, but rather the real absorption capacity of each project.

Supply and demand: the variable that explains the price in 2026

New construction: more activity, but persistent shortages

Although residential development is picking up, the pace is still insufficient to cover the creation of new homes in many key areas. The main brakes are:

  • High construction costs

  • Shortage of finalist land

  • Long administrative deadlines

  • Increased regulatory requirements

The result is clear: new construction will continue to be a scarce commodity where there is solvent demand, which will limit price corrections and favor stability in well-planned projects.

Active and increasingly segmented demand

In 2026, different buyer profiles will coexist:

  • National buyer of first and second homes

  • Selective international interest

  • Prudent, non-speculative equity investment

This segmentation explains why some projects sell quickly and others slow down their uptake. It is not a market problem, but a problem of product, price and target customer fit.

Will housing prices fall in 2026?

With the information currently available, no widespread house price decline is expected in 2026. The most likely scenario is:

  • More moderate growth than in 2025

  • Very marked differences by zones and typologies

  • Greater dispersion between well-positioned projects and those without a clear strategy

Baseline estimates:

The key is not in the percentage, but in understanding that not everything will rise equally or with the same level of risk.

What this scenario implies for buyers and investors

If you are considering buying a new building in 2026, these are the key variables to analyze:

  1. Location with sustained demand, not only perceived as a “prime” area.

  2. Real comparable offer, observing sales rhythm and not only published prices.

  3. Pricing strategy, avoiding paying unjustified premiums for apparent shortages.

  4. Quality of the project, determinant for future resale and rental.

  5. Time horizon, differentiating tactical decisions from patrimonial strategies.

What changes for developers and new construction projects in 2026

In a market that continues to grow, the risk shifts from price to sales rate. In 2026, the best performing projects will be those that get it right:

  • Real product differentiation

  • Accurate customer segmentation

  • Appropriate message and channel

  • Control of the absorption rate from the beginning

In BySales ‘ experience , the difference between selling and selling well lies in the upstream strategy, not in the final marketing phase.

BySales: strategy for better decision making

At BySales we help developers, investors and buyers of new construction to make informed decisions, providing:

  • Market and competition analysis by project

  • Strategic definition of product and price

  • Marketing oriented to real sales

  • Network of more than 3,400 agents and international partners

Want to know how your project or investment fits into the 2026 market?

If you are considering buying, investing or marketing new construction in 2026, we help you turn the market context into clear decisions.